A comment by Ralph T. Niemeyer
In the NATO war against the German economy and Russia in Ukraine, a new phase is imminent.
Many journalists read again in the coffee grounds, others ask people with a black cat on their shoulder and glass ball, while there is at least one certainty: the United States can no longer be interested in a War of wear and tear because both sides – cynically phrased – cannon food goes out. The German Greens continue to scratch their feet in order to have the direct confrontation with Russia, but none of them themselves want to march to the Eastern Front.
So what would President Biden have said to the head of the Federal Republic in Germany – administration, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in the White House? It must have been so very important that it could not be done via telecommunication channels. On the other hand, no distraction in the form of ceremonies or even delegation deployment took place so one did not want to disturb the meeting. Biden, whose USA still executes sovereign rights in parts of Germany according to article 5.2 of the “Two plus Four – Treaty” on settlement of the German question allowing for unification of East and West Germany in 1990, Scholz has caused him to share the new direction of march, almost a stack of new daily commands.
After the strategically important city of Bakhmut will now be taken by Russian troops, the question arises how to proceed, because in Moscow it will be further mobilized and prepared for the next escalation. What’s next? Odessa? Transnistria? Everything conceivable and logically justifiable.
No more access to the Black Sea would be the end for Ukraine and also Poland, which dreams of being awarded it’s part of Ukraine, of course wants to access the Black Sea, so all the excitement was for nothing if Putin marches through to Odessa and Transnistria?!
In order to prevent Russia from creating facts with the long-awaited spring offensive, the West must now make it clear to the Ukrainians that it is better the East Ukrainian provinces whose population will never give rest if it is not independent or belonging to Russia, to give lost and instead to force Putin to the negotiating table before Odessa is taken.
It would be favorable for Biden and Scholz, because in the United States the NATO war against Russia in Ukraine is already extremely unpopular and the next primary elections are already looming at the end of this year. And, Scholz experiences great resistance in terms of domestic policy, since 53% of Germans want more diplomacy, but only 38% are in favor of further arms deliveries, and the fear of the crash of the German economy with the further smoldering energy crisis is not only rumored by conservative and reputable economic institutes such as DIW and IFO.
Biden and Scholz could, however, applaud each other saying that they are reasonable and wanted to save Ukraine an even more violent defeat and even more suffering by furnishing Putin with an offer that he cannot reject without actually being seen as the imperial warmonger. This would be the way to force him to negotiate. That would be the “Odessa moment” that could end the war.
In addition, Biden will also have shown Scholz a red carrot in that the slump of the German economy through the gas crisis would be ended by allowing Nordstream 2 to be commissioned, at the US’s sole discretion, of course.
A completely de -industrialized Germany is also no help to the United States, because then the entire EU flies apart and thus the supremacy of the United States in Europe would also be weakened. One also need Berlin to pay the debts of Ukraine.
It all speaks for this version, because the day before yesterday I spoke to Gazprom about Nordstream2 as a representative of European Energy Hanseatic League and I was told at the HQ in Zug, Switzerland, that Nordstream 1 is being given up, but Nordstream 2 should be mothpacked so that no long -term damage is created. So one could repair the damaged second string of the pipeline at any time making then the complete commissioning be possible at any time.
So: win-win-win? Well, not quite that, because our sovereignty is still a long way off and the Americans are welding together an economically weakened German – EU, which they can continue to abuse for their imperialist wars.