by Ralph T. Niemeyer
Slowly it is beginning to dawn on the West that the Ukrainian army is in a state of dissolution. With the capitulation in Mariupol/Azov steel, reports of mutinies due to inadequate supplies or even relief are piling up. The city of Liman could be liberated almost undamaged because Ukrainian soldiers did not want to be burned as in Mariupol. The operation is coming to an end and one should think about what to expect in Germany afterwards.
The weapons deliveries, especially from the USA to Ukraine, are proving to be deadly for the Ukrainian soldiers themselves. The M777 howitzer in particular has poor quality and the training of Ukrainian soldiers on it is insufficient. However, the GPS-controlled target system proves to be particularly fatal. The Russian Army figured out a way to locate the M777 as soon as the targeting system was activated and that was it. Both the fighters of the Donbas republics and the Russian army have meanwhile collected masses of western NATO weapons left behind by fleeing Ukrainian army units.
You can read more about the M777 here.
NATO sees this with great concern, because it means that Russia knows even more about these systems. However, Russia has long been able to study German weapon systems that were brought from Germany to Afghanistan on Antonov 124 freighters. In this way, Russia was able to acquire the skills to render Western weapon systems harmless with electronic measures. This is now paying off in the Ukraine operation.
Russia must not win this war, Scholz reiterates over and over again
Chancellor Scholz said in Davos that Russia must not and will not win this war. And he says we have to end this war as soon as possible. How does that fit with arms shipments to Ukraine? He doesn’t explain that. Does he really believe that the Ukrainian army could retake territory, including Crimea, by force of arms? Not only Kissinger sees it differently and even Zelenskij now admits that this goal is unattainable. Moscow’s strategy seems to be working, although Scholz claims the opposite. However, Scholz probably did not listen to Putin. Putin said at the very beginning that the goal is not to occupy all of Ukraine. Scholz, on the other hand, describes exactly that as Russia’s goal and can then claim that Russia failed at something that they had no intention of doing.
In the east of Ukraine the boilers are closing, the supply routes are no longer working and it is only a matter of time before the undersupplied Ukrainian soldiers will surrender en masse. With its advance on Kyiv, Russia very skilfully prevented large parts of the Ukrainian army from being moved east. Russia didn’t want to achieve more at this point and that’s why they withdrew from precarious positions there. It’s too late now, because the road to the east is long and there is a lack of transport and fuel. The east and south of the country are lost to Kyiv. Russia is already massively engaged in reconstruction in the liberated regions. The military part of the Russian operation in Ukraine is coming to an end. But what will that mean for Germany?
Will Russia end the armistice with Germany?
What I am now sketching here is speculative, but not entirely unrealistic. Germany and Russia are – still – in the state of armistice. Only Chancellor Scholz seems to have understood what that means. That’s why he’s so reluctant to deliver arms directly to Ukraine. Direct supplies to a country at war with Russia is a breach of the ceasefire agreement with Russia. But that gives Russia the right to declare the armistice with Germany to be over. This means that Germany and Russia would then be at war again. Mind you: There is no peace treaty. What would the consequences be?
It should be noted that Germany did not break the armistice with the USA, England and France. This in turn means that there is no right on the part of these three to rescind the ceasefire. But isn’t Germany a member of NATO and is therefore protected by the same? Not even that will be the case. Article 5 of the NATO treaty excludes aid to a member state if it is the aggressor. Turkey also had to learn this when it wanted to proclaim Article 5 against Syria after its attack on Syria. So if you stick to treaties that are binding under international law, Germany is not entitled to NATO protection against Russia in this case. What can Germany do then?
Another unconditional surrender
Germany alone cannot wage war against a nuclear power. The state of the Bundeswehr also rules out the idea of even contemplating going to arms against Russia’s army. What remains? Only the immediate surrender before even a shot was fired. Anything else would be insane and self-destructive. But what would that mean? Very simple: The government, the administration of Germany, is then no longer in the chancellery, but one kilometer away in the Russian embassy. The governor there then has the right to determine what happens in Germany. Except for the extraterritorial exclaves in which the Americans have settled. They remain unaffected by this process,
Then, as after May 8, 1945, Russia can hold tribunals and try the German politicians responsible for the breach of the armistice. Yes, Chancellor Scholz is well aware of this and that is why he is trying to avoid creating this situation by supplying arms directly to Ukraine. That is the reason for the wild constructions with ring exchange and other legal tricks, for which Scholz is attacked by the fools who have not understood the seriousness of the situation in their hatred of Russia and their allegiance to America. And yes again, Scholz is playing for time. He seems to be hoping direct shipments scheduled for August will be late. Just when the Russian operation has already been successfully completed and then the delivery will no longer be possible.
Baerbock has already declared war on Russia
However, one should not overlook the fact that Germany, at least the German Foreign Minister, has already declared war on Russia. How else should one interpret it when she says she wants to permanently destroy Russia’s economy with the aim of changing the government? So it is already using the economic and financial weapon against Russia. The question is, therefore, whether this is already a breach of the ceasefire. It’s not Germany that can decide. The next consequence is that Russia will then no longer be bound by supply contracts. If Russia is at war with Germany, nobody can expect that it will continue to supply war-related goods. The gas tap can be turned off, with all the catastrophic consequences. Another argument for immediate surrender.
Russia does not want to destroy Ukraine or any other country. This procedure is happy to leave it to the USA, which is already very experienced in it. So I don’t expect Russia to want to harm Germany without coercion, although Germany has openly stated that it wants to harm Russia as much as possible. In the Ukraine operation itself, Russia has only now begun to use its newer and more effective weapons. They are demoralizing in their effect. Also, the fighters of the Donbas republics have not yet seriously started to attack the fortifications built in eight years of work, from which the shelling of Donetsk has been taking place for just as long. That would be associated with heavy losses and so one simply waits until the pocket is closed there too and the situation of the Ukrainian soldiers is hopeless. So hopeless that they will capitulate. It also helps that Ukrainian soldiers who have been taken prisoner can only report that they have been treated well.
Moscow has taken off the kid gloves
For eight years, Germany has made itself the party for Kyiv and against Russia. For three months extreme. Now even Moscow’s demand to lift sanctions in exchange for grain shipments is condemned. How can one be so arrogant as to think that sanctions can be imposed indefinitely and then expect counter-sanctions to be lifted without even taking a step towards the “enemy”? Mr. Habeck even says that a hundred thousand starvation deaths would not be an argument for lifting even one sanction against Russia. Just as the American Albright declared 500,000 dead children in Iraq to be a reasonable price.
Russia has taken off its kid gloves and the West is now getting a taste of its own medicine. But unlike the West, Russia has conditioned its counter-sanctions. Moscow has clearly said what the prerequisite for lifting its sanctions is. And no, a change of government is not included. But just as Kyiv missed the opportunity to negotiate a peace under good conditions, so could Germany if things continue as before. Russia’s position will be one of its strengths if the ceasefire is cancelled. Then there will be no negotiations.
Russia will simply determine how things will go with Germany. Dear Chancellor, stand your ground and don’t let gamblers tempt you into giving Russia the right to terminate the ceasefire. The consequences would be unpredictable. For you too. Putin has warned you urgently and Putin does not make empty promises. Ask yourself whether it is worth taking this risk for a country that we owe nothing and that is so far removed from our “Western values”. But maybe that would be the only way to rid our homeland of all the gender madness and other ideologically motivated excesses.
That’s why I called for a sovereign German constitution and a Peace Treaty ever since, in order to be free from US-NATO dominance and not to be drawn ever again into any of their wars. We ought to finish world wars one and two before we start number three!